Is Now the Right Time to Buy a Home in San Diego?
Your 2026–2028 Real Estate Roadmap for First-Time & Move-Up Buyers
By Tiana | Broker & Mortgage Loan Officer, TRU Financial Services | February 2026
DRE: 01769228 | NMLS: 352526
If you've been watching the San Diego real estate market from the sidelines — wondering if prices will drop, waiting for rates to fall, or simply trying to figure out when the "right time" is to buy — this guide is for you.
As a broker and mortgage loan officer with over 20 years serving San Diego County, I've watched this market cycle through booms, corrections, and every uncertain stretch in between. And right now, in early 2026, we are sitting inside one of the most important windows of opportunity I've seen since 2019.
Let me be direct: San Diego real estate doesn't crash. It recalibrates. The 2020–2022 boom was fueled by near-zero interest rates, pandemic-era demand, and record-low inventory. What followed in 2022–2024 wasn't a collapse — it was the market catching its breath. And history tells us what comes after a breath: a new surge. The question isn't if. It's when. The data points to 2027–2028 as the next meaningful seller's market. That means 2026 is your window.
"San Diego doesn't crash — it recalibrates. The people who move during recalibration build the most wealth."
— Tiana, TRU Financial Services
Where the Market Stands in Early 2026
Let's ground this in real numbers. The median single-family home price in San Diego County hit $1,000,000 in December 2025 — a 2.6% increase from December 2024. Homes are sitting on the market for 37–43 days on average, compared to just 19–24 days at the 2022 peak. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.19% in December 2025, down meaningfully from 6.72% a year prior. And housing supply sits at 2.2–3.0 months — still technically a seller's market, but with breathing room for buyers that simply didn't exist two years ago.
What that picture adds up to: stable prices, easing rates, and a market that is finally letting buyers think before they act.
$1MMedian SFH Price
December 2025 (+2.6% YoY)
6.19%30-Year Fixed Rate
Down from 6.72% in 2024
2.8 Mo.Housing Supply
Still lean — sellers maintain edge
The Timeline: What's Coming and When
Understanding where the market is headed — and why — is how you make decisions with confidence rather than anxiety. Here's what leading analysts and local data are projecting through 2028.
1
Now – Mid 2026
The Smart Window
This is the moment savvy buyers have been waiting for. The market has cooled just enough to create negotiating room — without prices actually declining. For first-time buyers, this means less competition, more time to think, and sellers willing to offer credits toward closing costs. For move-up buyers, your current home's equity remains strong, and you're buying your next property before the next wave of demand pushes prices higher. The Federal Reserve ended its quantitative tightening program in December 2025, which is already easing pressure on long-term rates. Spring 2026 is shaping up to be a meaningful turning point.
2
Late 2026
The Shift Begins
As mortgage rates continue their gradual descent toward the low 6% range — and potentially the high 5's — buyer demand will re-emerge with force. We're already seeing early signals: pending sales in North County increased 8.3% year-over-year as of October 2025. By late 2026, expect more multiple-offer situations on well-priced entry-level homes, tightening inventory as move-up sellers finally list, and shrinking days on market. If you haven't made your move yet, you'll start feeling the pressure return.
3
2027
A Strengthening Seller's Market
Most forecasters project 3–4% price appreciation in 2026, accelerating toward 4–5% annually by 2027. Coastal neighborhoods — La Jolla, Point Loma, Carmel Valley — will outperform. Entry-level pockets in Clairemont, University City, and East County will see renewed bidding wars. Move-up sellers will have strong pricing power. This is the year that 2026 buyers look back on and say: "I'm glad I moved when I did." For those still on the sidelines, it will start to feel like 2021 again — fast and competitive.
4
2028 and Beyond
The Next Peak
A leading California real estate analysis specifically identifies 2028 as the year the state's housing market fully exits the shadow recession that began in 2022. San Diego's structural advantages — military employment stability, coastal geography limiting new supply, consistent in-migration from younger professionals — make this timeline especially credible locally. Those who purchased in 2026 will be sitting on meaningful equity. Those who waited will be buying into peak conditions for the second time in a decade.
If You're a First-Time Buyer in San Diego
San Diego is one of the most challenging markets in the country to enter as a first-time buyer. A $1,000,000 median price is genuinely daunting. But the neighborhoods where first-time buyers can realistically purchase are performing differently than the headline number suggests — and the conditions of early 2026 are the most buyer-friendly we've seen since before the pandemic.
Where to Focus Your Search
Clairemont, Linda Vista, and Bay Park are consistently absorbing buyers priced out of coastal neighborhoods, with steady appreciation driven by proximity to job centers and transit. University City benefits from the tech corridor and UCSD influence. In East County — La Mesa, El Cajon, and Santee — relative value still exists with strong community character and competitive pricing for families. These are the neighborhoods where $600,000–$750,000 still buys a real single-family home.
What to Avoid Right Now
Condos and attached homes are the weakest segment in the current market, down approximately 7% year-over-year in many areas. Rising HOA fees are compounding affordability challenges. Unless the condo is in an exceptionally strong submarket, single-family detached homes — even smaller ones — are holding value and appreciating more reliably. For a first investment, that distinction matters.
The Financing Strategy That Changes Everything
Down payment assistance programs exist that most buyers don't know about — and right now, sellers are more willing to offer closing cost credits than they have been in years. That combination can dramatically shift what's possible for a first-time buyer in San Diego. The key is working with someone who structures both the real estate and the mortgage, so every piece of the transaction is optimized for your financial outcome.
TRU Advantage
When you use TRU Financial Services for both your real estate and your mortgage, you receive closing cost credits that reduce your out-of-pocket costs at closing. One expert. Two licenses. Zero runaround — and your interests are protected on both sides of the transaction.
📷 Photo suggestion for this section: A San Diego neighborhood street or front porch scene pairs well here. Try unsplash.com/s/photos/san-diego-neighborhood or pexels.com/search/san-diego-home.
If You're a Move-Up Buyer in San Diego
If you bought your San Diego home before 2022, you are sitting on a financial asset that has quietly transformed your net worth. San Diego homeowners who purchased before the 2020 boom have seen values rise 40–60% or more. That equity is your greatest negotiating tool in your next purchase — and the 2026 market is the best environment to deploy it that we've seen in years.
Breaking the Golden Handcuff Myth
The most common thing I hear from move-up buyers is: "I can't give up my 3% mortgage rate." I understand this completely — and I want to reframe it. The question isn't what rate you're leaving behind. The question is what equity and quality of life you're leaving on the table by staying. If your family has outgrown your home, if a better school district matters, or if your wealth strategy calls for a different asset, your next purchase is an investment decision. And the math often favors moving now, refinancing later, and accumulating equity in a better-matched property through the 2027–2028 appreciation cycle.
Date the rate. Marry the home.
Your Current Home Will Sell
One of the biggest fears for move-up buyers is being stuck — unable to sell their current home or carrying two mortgages. Here's the reality: inventory in San Diego is still tight at 2.2–3.0 months of supply. Well-priced homes are still transacting. The key word is well-priced. Sellers who are disciplined about pricing are moving. And with the right bridge loan strategy or lease-back arrangement, the transition can be structured so you move with confidence rather than chaos.
The Bottom Line
Real estate is always personal. The "right time" depends on your life — your income, your family, your goals, and your risk tolerance. But if the question is whether the San Diego market supports a decision to buy in 2026, every major data source points to yes.
Not because prices are falling — they're not. Not because rates are back at 3% — they won't be. But because the competitive environment is the most buyer-friendly it's been in five years, and the fundamental trajectory of this market — driven by constrained supply, military employment stability, and relentless millennial and Gen Z demand — points to continued appreciation through this decade.
The people who built the most wealth in San Diego real estate didn't buy at the bottom. They bought when the conditions made sense for their lives — and they held.
If your life is calling you toward homeownership or a move-up, 2026 is your answer.
"The buyers who move in 2026 will likely look back at this as their best window — similar to those who bought in 2018–2019 before the pandemic surge."
— TRU Financial Services Market Analysis
About the Author
Tiana is the owner and broker of TRU Financial Services, Inc., a boutique real estate and mortgage brokerage serving San Diego County for over 20 years. She holds dual licenses as both a real estate broker (DRE: 01769228) and mortgage loan officer (NMLS: 352526), specializing in first-time homebuyers and move-up buyers throughout San Diego County. Data referenced in this article sourced from C.A.R., Zillow, Redfin, First Tuesday Journal, and the San Diego MLS.
